The model estimates a regulation total from the current score and elapsed time, blended with a 110-point starting assumption. It is a heuristic, not a trained prediction.
- PPM is measured by quarter
- Each quarter uses only the combined points scored by both teams within that quarter. Divide those points by minutes played in that quarter. For example, 12 points in 2:00 is 6.00 PPM. This measures scoring rate, not a predicted quarter result or whole-game average. A completed quarter uses its full 5 minutes.
- Quarter categories and streaks
- Fast is 6+ PPM, Steady is 5 to under 6 PPM, and Slow is under 5 PPM. Classification waits for 1:00 played in the current quarter. Under 2:00 is an early sample. Super fast or Super slow means two or more consecutive classified quarters in that category. Before the current quarter reaches 1:00, a streak can refer only to completed quarters; its quarter range is labeled completed. A classified Steady or opposite-tempo current quarter breaks that streak. These are desk thresholds, not league calibration or confidence ratings.
- Full-game projections are separate
- The projected regulation total continues to use full-game scoring and the 110-point starting assumption. Missing quarter scores or a new quarter’s first minute do not remove an otherwise valid full-game projection. Highest and lowest sorts rank full-game projections. Highest quarter PPM ranks only the current quarter’s points per minute. Rankings apply within your filtered view; start-time sorting has no ranks. Unavailable tempo never means Slow. Displayed PPM values are truncated to two decimals so they do not round across a category threshold.
- When an estimate appears
- A score and clock from the same live snapshot must match the fixture identity and confirm 4 × 5-minute regulation play. The snapshot must be no more than 90 seconds old, the fixture feed no more than 60 seconds old, and at least 60 seconds must have been played. Overtime is excluded.
- Where clocks come from
- HudStats supplies fixtures. Clocks can come from its timeline or a matched Bovada public scoreboard; coverage varies by match. The selected match names its snapshot source. Its score and clock are taken together, so its score can differ from a HudStats update received at another time. Displayed clocks are provider snapshots, not continuously ticking timers.
- What “difference” means
- For Over, estimated total minus your reference total. For Under, your reference total minus estimated total. Your line is manually entered; it is not a live bookmaker line.
- What a Smash match means
- A fresh live estimate that meets your selected direction and minimum point difference. This label is a filter result, not a measure of confidence.
- Feed freshness
- The desk checks its local feed every 15 seconds. A fixture feed older than 60 seconds or score evidence older than 90 seconds disables an estimate even if the server is reachable. Refresh checks the local feed; it does not force an upstream update.
No win probabilities, historical accuracy claims, or betting recommendations are generated.